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A new professional gambling tumblr blog created by Punt.com as a base for snippets of sports trading opinion, quotes, notes and links.

Archive

Jun
29th
Sun
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Nadal @ Wimbledon, some concerns..

I’ve been championing Nadal’s chances at this years Wimbledon, even before he won the French and trounced Roger.  Things looked brilliant for him when he took the Queens title too, on courts that are acknowledged as faster than Wimbledon’s.  I think was was most impressive was his fast change of tactics from clay to grass, standing on the baseline to return serve, where 3 days previously he had taken position in the locker room to return Fed’s serves.

We’re halfway through the tournament now, Rog and Rafa are still there and we are looking good-ish for another repeat finale, but where I was confident in my Nadal bet (since traded out and reduced vastly) I’m now not so sure he has what it takes.  Against Gulbis he was pressured, even against Kiefer he looked rather impotent in the first set.  Take a look where he’s returning serve now, he’s resorted to standing in the locker room again, if not outside the stadium to return serves, this gives a decent server time to get into net on this surface.  Worryingly too there were signs of his shots dropping shorter v Kiefer, something he has suffered with on the faster surfaces.

I’m still confident he can sort this out, and perhaps he is making some attempt to not peak too early, to come out in the final with a new set of tactics to what he has used the rest of the tournament.  The surface dfinitely suits him, it’s still slow, it’s bouncing ever higher the longer the tournament goes on and his game has improved massively in the last 3 years… he can attack with the best of them now.  Step up Rafa, lets see some of that Queens form.

Jun
27th
Fri
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Jun
26th
Thu
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Jun
25th
Wed
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Jun
24th
Tue
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Jun
23rd
Mon
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A particularly enjoyable drawing of Lleyton Hewitt from the Telegraph.

A particularly enjoyable drawing of Lleyton Hewitt from the Telegraph.

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Jun
22nd
Sun
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Jun
21st
Sat
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Pascal’s Wager doesn’t mean that you have to be convinced beyond doubt that you are right. But you have to think about the consequences of what you’re doing and establish that you can survive them if you’re wrong. Consequences are more important than probabilities.
— Peter Bernstein, author of Against The Gods in an interview with CNN, which is recommended reading. This is a wonderful quote, I’m planning on writing a longer entry on the main blog about this.